by Charles Mader
Donald Trump won re-election to the US Presidency in November of 2024. He received 77M votes or 49.8% to Kamala Harris’ 75M votes or 48.33% of the electorate. Third party candidates received 1.87%. Neither candidate received more than 50% of the vote, and America remains a divided country, with many wondering what the next four years will bring.
Especially worried are the third of the country who consider themselves to be culturally liberal, as well as those identifying as LGBT. To these folks, the election results were a punch in the gut. Most people will carry on with doing, living, and working. There is also worry about the country’s direction when Trump leaves office.
Interestingly, the election comes when the tail-end of the Baby Boomers are retiring. Demographers are referring to the current era as ‘peak retirement.’
An estimated 11,200 Americans will be turning 65 between now and 2029. This is a record amount, both in numbers and also accrued retirement savings. According to Yahoo Finance, for ages 65–74: Average net worth is $1,794,600, while the median is $409,900, making Baby Boomers America’s wealthiest generation.
Traditionally, many American retirees have chosen to live in the sunbelt stretching from Southern California to the Carolinas and down to Florida. Many of these soon-to-be retirees are re-thinking their options in light of the election, with Mexico taking on a much greater appeal. Many progressive Americans are excited by the prospect of Mexico electing their first woman, a climate scientist, to the Mexican Presidency.
Puerto Vallarta holds particular appeal for liberal Americans, gay and straight, with its easy and accepting lifestyle offered. Those who already live and/or come here often know this. Puerto Vallarta is the San Francisco of Mexico with its accepting population and plethora of cultural offerings, fine dining, and nearby places to visit and experience. Vallarta remains the destination of choice for LGBT Americans.
For condominium homes, last summer saw a sales volume of over USD 54,000,000 with a slight drop in average price to USD 510,000. Second is Ocean Side Community in Nayarit. More than USD 22,000,000 was reported sold, and the surprise is the jump in average sales price from the USD 400,000 range to over USD 750,000. Total condo sales reported at the end of summer saw an average condo price of USD 487,000 for all communities. **
Looking at houses, Mismaloya was a surprise with summer sales of USD 6,500,000 and an increase in villa prices to USD 1,500,000, which is up 38%! Home sales in all communities as of the end of Q3 USD 88,400,000. The average area house in the Banderas Bay Region, up to San Pancho, sold for USD 546,000 over Q3.
These numbers are very attractive to North Americans looking at retiring and moving to Vallarta.
It is estimated that, after housing costs, the average American (or Canadian) can live a comfortable life in Mexico for less than $2000/month.
Coincidentally, this just happens to be the average US Social Security benefit for Americans retiring at age 67** Extrapolating the numbers, the average American retiree will have a Social Security benefit sufficient to cover their daily needs. They will also have the means to qualify to retire to Mexico as permanent resident-retirees and maintain their current lifestyle with the savings they already have accrued in their homes, as well as 401ks, IRAs, and other savings.
For 2025, The Mexican Government* will require gross liquid assets of around USD 400,000 or a monthly income of $7500 for the past 6 months to qualify for a Permanent Resident Retirement Visa. In most cases, this can be sidestepped by purchasing a home for $400,000 or more. As outlined above, the average US retiree has a net worth of just over $400,000. This represents a sweet spot for many Americans and Canadians.
According to Harriet Murray, owner of Cochran Real Estate, she estimates most of the available condos and houses in the Banderas Bay region exceed this amount.
Further, she estimates that the area will have sufficient inventory, both currently available and in production, to meet the projected future increased buyer demand the election has presented.
I predict that Mexico, especially Puerto Vallarta and the Banderas Bay region, will experience a property boom for the next four years and possibly longer. The only downsides I see are the state and local governments being able to manage the increased population while maintaining the current ambiance and amenities of living here.
*https://consulmex.sre.gob.mx/leamington/index.php/non-mexicans/visas/114-permanent-resident-visa
**per FlexMLS
*** Reported by Yahoo Finance
Charlie is a California Licensed Real Estate Broker, primarily living and working in San Francisco, with experience selling in the Palm Springs market.
